It’s simple, FC Dallas missed the playoffs. The team needs to improve. So let’s talk about how that can be accomplished.
Sure, get a new coach, bring in some new tactics, and coach ’em up. Evaluate your medical/health/training/conditioning to help reduce and prevent injuries. Both are easier said than done.
Importantly, the biggest part of improving play is done by improving the roster. How can FC Dallas do that?
Let’s begin with the basics.
Note: All salary numbers in this article are current 2024 numbers of guaranteed compensation, just to keep it simple.
Cap Cleanup
On the podcast, I did a bit on the FCD salary cap. I did my best guess at what the cap would be like if FCD left the roster like it is and brought everyone back. By my (probably only kind of accurate) calculation, they would be somewhere between $1 mil and $1.5 over with the exact same roster.
Of course, between options, contracts ending, and loans ending FC Dallas could drop 19 of the club’s 36 first-team players. I expect 10 or more of them will be gone just to reduce the size of the roster and to add from North Texas SC or the Academy.
So the reality is, they don’t have to be proactive to fix the cap. It will happen naturally.
But that doesn’t get you better. Getting better likely requires clearing off some large salaries and bringing in different higher-profile players.
Small Swings – One (or Two) to One Swaps
This is a pretty basic idea. You drop a player and replace them with someone “better.”
As a “make the defense better” example, Sebastien Ibeagha‘s 2025 option will probably escalate him to next year’s TAM/GAM threshold ($743,750) – his salary went up $100k from ’23 to ’24 – that’s a max-salary slot. With some TAM/GAM you could get a top-level CB well above that salary threshold and buy them down like they do with Sebastian Lletget and Paxton Pomykal.
Yet I think the club wants to keep Ibby. In that case, they should try hard to get him to contract at a lower number, like a 2+1 deal at $400k-$500k or something.
So perhaps FCD can combine player drops to make a larger salary slot? Replace the bodies with homegrowns or other minimum-salary players to create a max-salary slot.
Randon, non-specific example; dropping Nkosi Tafari ($347k), Liam Fraser ($227k), and Sam Junqua ($212K) opens up a max-salary slot in the cap by sacrificing depth.
Look, you can play with the roster this was all day. Want to try it yourself? Check our Roster Dance and go to town.
Most of the highest-paid players are under contract for 2025 so something big has to change to add impactful players.
Large Swing – Move Paul Arriola
Paul Arriola is a terrific asset. He’s a great leader as Captain and he can play all over the field. The current technical team loves them some versatility and flexibility. Everyone at the club loves the guy. In a no-salary-cap league, he’d be fantastic.
But in a salary cap league, Arriola is problematic.
In 2025, Arriola probably isn’t a starter at his natural wing position. Multiple players block his path (Alan Velasco, Jesus Ferreira, Logan Farrington… maybe even a revitalized Bernie Kamungo). This year, the club has been using Arriola “out of position” at outside back. And he turns 30 before next season.
But most of all, his contract is an albatross at $1.7 million.
That’s a DP salary and FCD has three other DPs. So they will need to use $1 million in TAM to buy that salary down in 2025. That is a boatload of TAM, almost half the club’s base allotment of $2.225 mil for next year wrapped up in one player.
That $1 mil could go toward signing a new center back, for example.
FC Dallas could remove Arriola from the roster by a trade inside MLS (his hometown San Diego maybe?), a sale/loan to a club outside the league (Mexico, Xolos?), or via the one-per-season buyout (the Hunts would have to pay it out of their pocket).
You might not get much in return for the trade, perhaps even needing to send some GAM along with Arriola.
It would be preferable for the Hunts to not do the buyout though. They need to save that buyout in case Paxton Pomykal is never the same and they need to clear his $1 mil salary off the cap.
The Big Swing – Sell Jesus Ferreira
Last winter, MLS blocked a $13 million sale of Jesus Ferreira to Spartak Moscow. Then this summer, a move to UD Las Palmas died at the last minute. (I have independently confirmed both since.)
Clearly, as deals keep getting lined up, Ferreira wants to go.
Sure, you could sell one of your other DPs, but the time is right for FC Dallas to sell because of Logan Farrington. When a cheap, young player is producing (4 goals, 8 assists) at the same level as a DP (6 goals, 6 assists) you have the luxury to part with the high-priced player in the same position.
A Ferreira sale would create lots of options for the Huntsmen.
First, it opens a DP spot.
Second, FCD would pocket 95% off the sale price to use in the organization.
Third, they can convert $3 mil of the sale into GAM.
Thus,
Paul Arriola could convert to DP status, saving the club $1 mil in TAM on his buydown.
OR…
FCD could go after a new DP. Perhaps for the midfield or back line?
OR…
FCD could change to the Two DPs / Four U22 Initiative roster in which the club would receive an additional $2 mil in GAM.
In Conclusion
So which one should FC Dallas do?
All three.
Selling Ferreira and moving out Arriola nets the club an open DP slot plus a max-salary slot plus $4 to $5 million in TAM/GAM. On top of that, decline and move on from underperforming (relative to salary) players. Not to mention the bonus GAM for missing the playoffs and for it being an expansion year.
We could be looking at a one-winter complete rebuild into a competitive team.
Up Next – Roster Building
As soon as FC Dallas announces their end-of-season roster moves – I made predictions here – I’ll write something on roster building for 2025. Digging into their needs and where FCD can improve.
not a fan of losing both Paul and Jesus, but I totally understand financially it puts the team in a better situation.
If I had to pick one, sell Ferreira and keep Arriola. Bigger impact.
Plus Arriola is a big leader.
I say move on from both. This team is not good – I’ll be kind. We need multiple impact players. This is not a team that is one player away from contending. We were one of the worst teams in the league with both.
It’s hard for me to imagine a team willing to match or exceed Ferreira’s current wage of $2.2M per year, so I’m having a hard time seeing him being sold. Do you know if his wage demands are what killed the deal with Las Palmas or if it was the transfer price? I would hope that the Hunt’s were basically willing to take pretty much any offer for him now which was over $3M since they can use all of that as GAM. But they could be still holding on to their older evaluations.
I assume price, as you get to the finish line if you don’t know what the salary is.
I have no idea how long he’s under contract for, but seems like Jesus might need a season to rehab his value. He’s been banged up and it’s seems to slowed him down a bit. I dunno that that’s his fault, but I have to imagine that’s taken some of the shine off of him in the transfer market
Jesus: Contract thru 2025 with a 2026 option.
Imagine a roster where paul, Jesus, pax, lleget, ibi, tafari (something is off, you don’t bench your best cb while struggling and missing the playoffs), illara (old and slow), Velasco (too many links in Argentina for there to not be interest), and Musa (does he take want to play his prime years on dallas during a stadium rebuild) all get moved.
That’s wild card freedom to build any team you want, it’s football manger crazy wipe the slate rebuild, and I’d be for it.
Alan would need to be 10+ and Musa would need to be 20+ million. That’s huge money in.
Skc has been very public about their intention to provide cash injection. A bogey team with an updated roster sees them being better than us.
Knowing how cheap the hunt bros can be, I can see them being content with turning into the lowest payroll team during the stadium rebuild. They’re going to lose 2 years of half the ticket income. That’s offset by the new jacked up prices a bit.
Personally I expect a couple years of painful soccer in a half stadium.
I would be shocked to see half those names gone.
I can also see a scenario where FCD says “it was the injuries” and basically just brings back the same team with a few light additions.
That’s quite the ‘Buzz kill’ thought…