I’m Dustin “El Jefe” Christmann, and I am an FC Dallas fanatic from Day One of the Dallas Burn. I’m also a hater. I used to yell mean, hateful things from the stands at the Cotton Bowl and Toyota Stadium, but now, I’m sharing my id with you to help guide you, my fellow FCD fans, in your enjoyment of Major Soccer on TV.
Musical accompaniment
Last week
One immutable fact of life in MLS when they’ve done three-game playoff series is this: Win Game 1 and you’re almost home. It’s uncanny. I don’t know the exact numbers, but teams that win Game 1 in a three-game series in MLS have won not quite 100% of the time, but close to it.
From 1996 to 1999, best-of-three series were used in the four conference semifinal series and in the two conference final series, six each season. So there were 24 total best-of-three series. And of those 24 series, 23 were won by the Game 1 winners. The only one that wasn’t was the 1996 Eastern Conference Semifinal between DC United and the MetroStars. The Metros won in a shootout in Game 1 at Giants Stadium, but DC came back and won Games 2 and 3 at RFK Stadium and advanced. (In ‘96, the lower seed hosted Game 1, the higher seed hosted Games 2 and 3.)
Since 2023, MLS has returned to the best-of-three series for the conference quarterfinal only, and with a penalty shootout instead of the 35-yard shootout. But the trend has held. In 2023, all eight series were won by the Game 1 winners. In 2024, six out of eight were won by the Game 1 winners. (The Miami-Atlanta and the Cincinnati-NYCFC series were won by Atlanta and NYCFC after losing Game 1.) And this year, eight for eight.
For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 45 series out of 48 won by the Game 1 winners. That’s a winning percentage that’s almost in “Saddam running for President of Iraq” territory.
But that was two weeks ago. Last week, two different FC Dallas players scored the goals that qualified their nations for the World Cup. Last Friday, Petar Musa scored the second goal for Croatia against the Faroe Islands in their 3-1 win, which clinched direct qualification. And the following Wednesday night, the almost-forgotten (by FCD fans) Deedson scored in the 9th minute for the first goal, the winning goal, in a 2-0 win over Nicaragua that qualified Haiti directly to the World Cup. In total, Deedson had four goals for Haiti during their qualifying campaign, which is a greater number than the appearances that he had for FCD this season. It might be nice to see more of him next season.
FC Dallas: Better than you think. But not good enough to make it to this round.
Saturday
West #2 Vancouver Whitecaps vs. West #3 Los Angeles FC (Apple TV free game, 8:30)
This is the game that all the true MLS knowers want to watch this round. Both these teams made huge signings at the midseason transfer window, with Vancouver signing Thomas Müller and LAFC signing Son Heung-Min. Both these teams were hotter than a two-dollar pistol in the second half of the season. Both these teams advanced in the 1st Round in two games against their Texas opposition.
This game reminds me of those movies that they used to show on Saturday afternoon that matched up two monsters against one another, like Godzilla vs. King Kong or something like that. These are two teams that could legitimately win MLS Cup and not surprise anyone. The shame is that we’re seeing them in this round.
Oh well, LAFC, you shouldn’t have started the season slowly. And oh well, Vancouver, you shouldn’t have dropped that home game against FCD on Decision Day. The great Big E from WWE has my general thoughts on this game:
Two meaty teams with big goal totals and a big scorers slappin’ meat!
Jefe the Hater’s rooting pick: Vancouver.
Sunday
East #2 FC Cincinnati vs. East #3 Inter Miami (Apple TV free game, 4:00)
The most ridiculous debate right now, such that it is a debate, is “Who should win MLS MVP?” Anyone with a lick of sense should say, “C’mon, what are we doing here? It’s Messi.” The guy’s leading the league in goals with 29 and leading the league in assists with 19. That’s 48 goal contributions from his feet. Some playoff teams didn’t even have that many in their entire seasons. Sasha Kljestan was doing an MVP Power Rankings list on the league website for a while, but he quit with that after mid-October.
Not that Evander didn’t do his level best to keep up. He finished with 18 goals and 15 assists in the regular season, which are the exact numbers that got Jason Kreis the league MVP in 1999, but those numbers feel terribly insufficient next to the greatest player of our generation.
Honestly, this is the same sort of “big meaty men slapping meat” game that the first one was, but for one simple thing: I don’t believe in Miami. Yes, they’ve got the aforementioned greatest player of our generation. Yes, they’ve scored an insane number of goals this season. But they don’t feel as inevitable as they did last season. They moved out some contributors. Their incoming transfers, particularly Rodrigo de Paul, haven’t worked out the way they hoped. They went from a seasoned manager in Tata Martino to the inexperienced Javier Mascherano. They let in a lot of goals, more goals than any other playoff team outside of Chicago and FCD. They… got worse.
And thus, they finished third and are playing this game in Cincy.
Now watch, they’ll probably go and win MLS Cup.
Jefe the Hater’s rooting pick: Cincy.
East #1 Philadelphia Union vs. East #5 New York City FC (Apple TV free game, 6:45)
It’s lurking out there. It’s stalking, biding its time before it attacks, waiting for the right moment to strike.
Many think that they can elude it, that they can stay a step ahead of it, but they almost never do.
It has a variety of weapons at its disposal. You can be prepared for one or more, but another will get you.
In the end, it will have its prey.
It… is the Supporters Shield Curse.
Honestly, this feels like the perfect game for Philly to get got. NYCFC is the lowest seed remaining in the playoffs. They lost Andrés Perea to a broken leg in Game 3 against CLT FC, and they lost Alonzo Martínez to a ligament injury while he was in Costa Rica training during the international break. Martínez was, of course, the biggest blow because he is only NYCFC’s leading scorer this season with 17 goals, and he scored twice in the first round against CLT FC.
So it would seem like a perfect opportunity for the Supporters Shield Curse to strike. But the Curse strikes when you least expect it. Maybe it’ll be Sunday night. Maybe it’ll be in the Eastern Conference Final. Maybe it’ll be in the MLS Cup Final.
But the Curse is never far away.
Jefe the Hater’s rooting pick: Philly. Sorry, but I just can’t get with a sportswashing operation that plays home games in a baseball stadium.
Monday
West #1 San Diego FC vs. West #4 Minnesota United (Apple TV free game, 9:00)
So I asked myself, “Self, why is this game on Monday night? Monday night sucks.” You see, I belong to that exclusive club known as “People who hate Mondays.” Yep, me, and Garfield, and I’m sure no one else.
But I am also a Major League Soccer fan from Day One, which means that I remember the days when MLS teams didn’t have control of their own stadiums, and it also provides me with a rich vein of jokes when NYCFC is playing the occasional home game at Citi Field or at Fresh Kills. It also causes me to do a quick Google search when an MLS team is playing a playoff game on Monday night.
Ah, that’s it. Anyway, expect the following things in this game:
- You’ll be left with no doubt who the primary tenant is at Snapdragon Stadium. Let’s just say that SDSU isn’t gonna be skimping on the field markings just because there’s a soccer game two days later. I mean, it’s not like they’ve cared about trivial things like “good grass,” so why should they care about a little paint?
- Minnesota United’s gonna try to turn the game into a rock fight.
- The announcers are gonna hype up Anders Dreyer as an MVP candidate, when… c’mon. (See above.)
- We’ll get to hear about the ongoing Chucky Lozano soap opera.
- We may not get to see either Dreyer or Lozano, due to illness for Dreyer and a hamstring injury for Lozano.
Jefe the Hater’s rooting pick: Minnesota.